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Prediction for CME (2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-14T19:10Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25976/-1
CME Note: CME is faint and difficult to observe, seen as a partial halo to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2 and for few frames in STEREO A COR2 preceding data gap. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent C8.8 flare from AR 3370 (near S18E14) starting around 2023-07-14T18:35Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Noticeably deflected W. Arrival signature: Sharp increase in B-total from 7nT to 13nT. Sudden fluctuation in B-field components and increases in solar wind speed from ~350km/s to ~450km/s, in temperature and gradual increase in density. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS: definite shock arrival ~2023-07-16T18:35Z and another similar and more prominent feature in the plasma data around 2023-07-17T01:26Z (speed jump of 200 km/s) but nothing in the magnetic field. It is possible to have an admixture of HSS as well late on 2023-07-17.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-16T18:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-17T03:54Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-14 22:24
- Time at C2: 2023-07-14 19:10
- Radial speed: 934.0 km/s
- Half angle: 40 deg
- Eruption location: S18W02
Inferences:
 - No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
 - In-situ shock speed: 686.20 km/s
 - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-17 03:54 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.73 hours)

Lead Time: 24.83 hour(s)
Difference: -9.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-07-15T17:45Z

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